Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in hospitals and the community: model predictions based on the UK situation.

Theoretical modelling shows that patient movements in and out of hospitals are likely to affect nosocomial transmission dynamics. The community acts as a “reservoir” and readmission of individuals colonised during previous admissions can result in sporadic transmission within hospitals. A 7-year investigation of patient movement patterns showed that an infected person has a 44.2% chance of being readmitted while still infected. This value is far higher than previous estimates (3.7%) highlighting the potential importance of transmission driven by hospital admissions. For this reason we believe consideration of readmissions from the community population to be critical to the success of hospital acquired infection control. Journal of Hospital Infection 2007;65(Suppl 2):93-9.