Estimators of annual probability of infection for quantitative microbial risk assessment

Four estimators of annual infection probability were compared pertinent to Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis (QMRA). A stochastic model, the Gold Standard, was used as the benchmark. It is a product of independent daily infection probabilities which in turn are based on daily doses. This paper proposes a simple adjustment to the Gold Standard equation accommodating periodic infection probabilities when the daily infection probabilities are unknown.J Water Health. 2010;8(2):365-73